102 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
102 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
# Tick 35 — 2026-05-22 10:55 UTC
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**Thread:** Production roadmap synthesis
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**Verdict:** Terminal output of the loop. Maps every research finding to owner / LOC / dependency / priority. Total budget: **~3,500 LOC, ~25 person-weeks**.
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## What shipped
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- `docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md` — 6-tier roadmap from loop output to shipped product.
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## Headline budget breakdown
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| Tier | Timeline | LOC | Person-weeks |
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|---|---|---:|---:|
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| Tier 1 | Q3 2026 (next quarter) | ~490 | 3-4 |
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| Tier 2 | Q3-Q4 2026 | ~1180 | 6-8 |
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| Tier 3 | 2027 | ~1140 | 8-10 |
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| Tier 4-5 | long horizon | ~700+ | 6-8 |
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| **Total** | | **~3,500** | **~25 weeks** |
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## Tier 1 (Q3 2026) — 4 items
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| # | Item | LOC | Priority |
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|---|---|---:|---|
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| 1.1 | `wifi-densepose plan-antennas` CLI tool | 360 | HIGH |
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| 1.2 | R12.1 pose-PABS in vital_signs cog | 80 | HIGH |
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| 1.3 | cog-person-count v0.0.3 chest-centric | 50 | HIGH |
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| 1.4 | ADR-029 amendment w/ ADR-113 matrix | 0 | HIGH |
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Tier 1 alone delivers: 93× placement-coverage lift, 9.36× intruder-detection lift, ADR-029 closed.
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## Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026) — 4 items
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`ruview-fed` crate (800 LOC), cog-vital-signs DP (120), bench validation (200), MCP placement tool (60).
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## Tier 3 (2027) — 4 items
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Cross-install fed (530), PQC Phase 1 (490), real-AETHER + R3.2 (200), cog-fall-detection (200).
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## Tier 4-5 — long horizon
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- 4.x: PQC Phase 2, R10 wildlife cog, R11 maritime cog, R6.1 production
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- 5.x: Real RCS measurements, weather-affected propagation, fatigue cog, disaster-fed ethics
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## Critical-path graph
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```
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1.1 CLI ──┬──> 1.3 person-count v0.0.3 ──┬──> 2.1 ruview-fed ──> 2.2 DP-VS ──> 3.1 X-install ──> 3.2 PQC
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1.2 R12.1─┘ │ │
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└──> 3.3 real-AETHER ──> 3.4 fall │
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4.x verticals
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```
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## Why this document matters
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After 35 ticks of research output, this is the document that lets a team **pick up and ship** without re-reading the 34 research notes. Priority alignment, estimate-anchoring, critical-path visibility — all in one place.
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## What R-numbered threads ship in what tier
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| Threads | Tier |
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|---|---|
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| R5 / R6 / R6.2 family / R6.1 | Tier 1 (placement + PABS) |
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| R12 / R12.1 PABS | Tier 1.2 |
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| R3 / R3.1 / R3.2 / R14 / R15 | Tier 2-3 (privacy + federation) |
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| R7 mincut | Tier 2 (in ruview-fed) |
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| R13 NEGATIVE | rules out BP cog, no Tier line |
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| R10 wildlife | Tier 4.2 |
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| R11 maritime | Tier 4.3 |
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| R16/R17/R18 verticals | Tier 4-5 |
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## Composes with every loop output
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Every loop thread, ADR, vertical sketch has a line in some Tier above. This is the **terminal output** of the loop — the last document that needs the synthesis power of a research loop to produce.
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## Honest scope of the roadmap itself
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- Estimates are synthetic-data-based; may shift after bench validation
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- Critical-path may have hidden dependencies (e.g. AgentDB schema changes)
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- 25 person-weeks assumes full-time engineers, not split focus
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- Doesn't include integration testing, documentation, deployment ops time
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- Tiers are based on architectural dependency, not business priority
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## Coordination
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`ticks/tick-35.md`. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch `research/sota-production-roadmap`.
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## Loop status approaching completion
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~1.1h to cron stop. After 35 ticks the loop has produced:
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- 16 research threads (R1, R3, R5-R15, R16, R17, R18)
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- 6 exotic verticals (wildlife, maritime, empathic, healthcare, industrial, disaster)
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- 6 new ADRs (105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 113)
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- 3 negative result categories
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- 2 self-corrections
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- 3 honest-scope findings
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- 9-tick R6 placement family (complete)
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- 3-tick R3 cross-room re-ID arc (complete)
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- 3-tick R12 structure detection arc (complete)
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- This production roadmap synthesis
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The 00-summary.md (final tick) will follow after the 12:00 UTC / 08:00 ET cron stop.
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