115 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
115 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
# Tick 34 — 2026-05-22 10:46 UTC
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**Thread:** R18 (disaster response — collapsed building survivor detection)
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**Verdict:** Third "vertical demonstrates loop generality" tick. R18 is the **first vertical to integrate with an existing repo crate** (`wifi-densepose-mat`), making loop-to-production path most direct.
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## What shipped
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- `docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/R18-disaster-response.md` — vertical sketch + MAT crate integration + rubble-attenuation analysis.
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## Headline: rubble is RF-leaky, not RF-opaque
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| Material | 2.4 GHz attenuation |
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|---|---:|
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| Steel (1 mm) | 2,674 dB (opaque) |
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| **Mixed rubble (1-2 m)** | **40-80 dB** |
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| Brick (10 cm) | 8-12 dB |
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| Concrete (10 cm) | 20-30 dB |
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| Drywall (1.5 cm) | 1-2 dB |
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ESP32-S3 link budget (121 dB) gives **40-80 dB margin** through typical rubble. Survivors at 1 m depth: +37 dB margin (feasible). 2 m: +7 dB (marginal). 3 m: infeasible.
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**Dramatically better than R11 maritime through-bulkhead** (where steel was dominant).
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## Loop primitives → MAT crate enhancements
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| Capability | MAT today | + Loop |
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|---|---|---|
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| Detect survivor | shipped | R12.1 pose-PABS = 9.36× fewer false alarms |
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| Multi-survivor | partial | R6.2.5 multi-subject union (bounded to ~4) |
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| Localisation | partial | R1 CRLB = ~25 cm at 4-anchor |
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| Vitals confirmation | partial | R14 V1 + R15 rate-only (R13 rules out contour) |
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| Survivor vs rescuer | not addressed | R3 + AETHER + rescue-worker library |
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| Adversarial RF | not addressed | **R7 mincut binding** at disaster sites |
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| Audit trail | not addressed | ADR-109 Dilithium-signed event log |
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## Six-cog roadmap
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| Cog | Timeline | Primitive |
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|---|---|---|
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| cog-mat-survivor-detect (existing) | NOW | wifi-densepose-mat |
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| cog-mat-pose-pabs | 5y | + R12.1 |
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| cog-mat-multi-survivor | 5y | + R6.2.5 |
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| cog-mat-vitals-confirm | 5y | + R14 V1 + R15 |
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| cog-mat-survivor-vs-rescuer | 10y | + R3 + library |
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| cog-mat-cross-deploy-fed | 15y | + ADR-105-108 |
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## Three deployment scenarios
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| Scenario | Timeline | Notes |
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|---|---|---|
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| Rapid response (current MAT scope) | 5y | $200 per survey unit |
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| Pre-staged at seismic-risk sites | 10y | Auto-activate on tremor |
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| Cross-disaster federated learning | 15y | Consent-bounded |
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## Vertical comparison: 5 verticals now
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| | R18 disaster | R16 healthcare | R17 industrial |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Repo asset | **existing MAT crate** | none | none |
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| Through-medium | rubble 40-80 dB | air | air |
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| Mobility | trapped (static) | stationary | mobile |
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| **R7 mincut** | binding | nice-to-have | binding |
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| Failure cost | survivor dies | clinical miss | safety incident |
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Three of three target verticals (clinical, industrial, disaster) work with the same architecture. **Strong evidence the loop's output is genuinely vertical-agnostic.**
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## Honest scope
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- No bench-validated disaster-site data (ethics: can't simulate dead bodies)
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- R7 mincut at disaster sites = hostile-RF requirement, not nice-to-have
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- Cross-disaster federation raises consent questions (survivors / victims' families)
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- Time-pressure: false-negatives at minute cost are fatal; threshold tuning aggressive
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- MAT crate API doesn't yet consume R6.1 multi-scatterer — integration work needed
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- Steel-rubble cases (basement w/ rebar) impossible per R11
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- Underwater rescue impossible per R11 saltwater
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## Through-rubble vital-signs feasibility (computed)
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```
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Link budget: 121 dB
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Rubble loss (1-2 m): -40 to -80 dB
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Multi-scatterer penalty: -4.7 dB
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SNR margin needed: -10 dB
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Available for vitals: +37 to -27 dB
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```
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Breathing-rate detection feasible at 1 m rubble, marginal at 2 m, infeasible at 3 m.
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## Composes with prior threads
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- R1, R6/R6.1, R6.2.2/.5, R7 (binding here), R10, R11, R12/R12.1, R13 NEGATIVE, R14, R15, R3
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- ADR-105-109 federation + audit chain
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- ADR-113 placement matrix
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- R16/R17 parallel vertical patterns
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## R18 special status
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First vertical to integrate with **existing repo crate** (`wifi-densepose-mat`). Loop-to-production path is shortest for this domain because production code already exists; loop primitives enhance rather than replace.
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## Coordination
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`ticks/tick-34.md`. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch `research/sota-r18-disaster-response`.
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## Loop summary update
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Six verticals + cross-thread identity work:
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1. R10 wildlife
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2. R11 maritime
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3. R14 empathic appliances
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4. R16 healthcare
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5. R17 industrial
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6. **R18 disaster (first integrates with existing crate)**
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~1.2h to cron stop.
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