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wifi-densepose/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-34.md

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Tick 34 — 2026-05-22 10:46 UTC

Thread: R18 (disaster response — collapsed building survivor detection) Verdict: Third "vertical demonstrates loop generality" tick. R18 is the first vertical to integrate with an existing repo crate (wifi-densepose-mat), making loop-to-production path most direct.

What shipped

  • docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/R18-disaster-response.md — vertical sketch + MAT crate integration + rubble-attenuation analysis.

Headline: rubble is RF-leaky, not RF-opaque

Material 2.4 GHz attenuation
Steel (1 mm) 2,674 dB (opaque)
Mixed rubble (1-2 m) 40-80 dB
Brick (10 cm) 8-12 dB
Concrete (10 cm) 20-30 dB
Drywall (1.5 cm) 1-2 dB

ESP32-S3 link budget (121 dB) gives 40-80 dB margin through typical rubble. Survivors at 1 m depth: +37 dB margin (feasible). 2 m: +7 dB (marginal). 3 m: infeasible.

Dramatically better than R11 maritime through-bulkhead (where steel was dominant).

Loop primitives → MAT crate enhancements

Capability MAT today + Loop
Detect survivor shipped R12.1 pose-PABS = 9.36× fewer false alarms
Multi-survivor partial R6.2.5 multi-subject union (bounded to ~4)
Localisation partial R1 CRLB = ~25 cm at 4-anchor
Vitals confirmation partial R14 V1 + R15 rate-only (R13 rules out contour)
Survivor vs rescuer not addressed R3 + AETHER + rescue-worker library
Adversarial RF not addressed R7 mincut binding at disaster sites
Audit trail not addressed ADR-109 Dilithium-signed event log

Six-cog roadmap

Cog Timeline Primitive
cog-mat-survivor-detect (existing) NOW wifi-densepose-mat
cog-mat-pose-pabs 5y + R12.1
cog-mat-multi-survivor 5y + R6.2.5
cog-mat-vitals-confirm 5y + R14 V1 + R15
cog-mat-survivor-vs-rescuer 10y + R3 + library
cog-mat-cross-deploy-fed 15y + ADR-105-108

Three deployment scenarios

Scenario Timeline Notes
Rapid response (current MAT scope) 5y $200 per survey unit
Pre-staged at seismic-risk sites 10y Auto-activate on tremor
Cross-disaster federated learning 15y Consent-bounded

Vertical comparison: 5 verticals now

R18 disaster R16 healthcare R17 industrial
Repo asset existing MAT crate none none
Through-medium rubble 40-80 dB air air
Mobility trapped (static) stationary mobile
R7 mincut binding nice-to-have binding
Failure cost survivor dies clinical miss safety incident

Three of three target verticals (clinical, industrial, disaster) work with the same architecture. Strong evidence the loop's output is genuinely vertical-agnostic.

Honest scope

  • No bench-validated disaster-site data (ethics: can't simulate dead bodies)
  • R7 mincut at disaster sites = hostile-RF requirement, not nice-to-have
  • Cross-disaster federation raises consent questions (survivors / victims' families)
  • Time-pressure: false-negatives at minute cost are fatal; threshold tuning aggressive
  • MAT crate API doesn't yet consume R6.1 multi-scatterer — integration work needed
  • Steel-rubble cases (basement w/ rebar) impossible per R11
  • Underwater rescue impossible per R11 saltwater

Through-rubble vital-signs feasibility (computed)

Link budget:                121 dB
Rubble loss (1-2 m):      -40 to -80 dB
Multi-scatterer penalty:   -4.7 dB
SNR margin needed:         -10 dB
Available for vitals:      +37 to -27 dB

Breathing-rate detection feasible at 1 m rubble, marginal at 2 m, infeasible at 3 m.

Composes with prior threads

  • R1, R6/R6.1, R6.2.2/.5, R7 (binding here), R10, R11, R12/R12.1, R13 NEGATIVE, R14, R15, R3
  • ADR-105-109 federation + audit chain
  • ADR-113 placement matrix
  • R16/R17 parallel vertical patterns

R18 special status

First vertical to integrate with existing repo crate (wifi-densepose-mat). Loop-to-production path is shortest for this domain because production code already exists; loop primitives enhance rather than replace.

Coordination

ticks/tick-34.md. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch research/sota-r18-disaster-response.

Loop summary update

Six verticals + cross-thread identity work:

  1. R10 wildlife
  2. R11 maritime
  3. R14 empathic appliances
  4. R16 healthcare
  5. R17 industrial
  6. R18 disaster (first integrates with existing crate)

~1.2h to cron stop.