88 lines
3.7 KiB
Markdown
88 lines
3.7 KiB
Markdown
# Tick 29 — 2026-05-22 09:53 UTC
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**Thread:** R12.1 (pose-PABS closed loop)
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**Verdict:** Synthetic validation of R12 PABS's deferred closure. Pose-updated pipeline gives **9.36× intruder detection lift** vs fixed-expected's 1.29×. **False-alarm problem from R12 PABS resolved.** R12 thread fully closed.
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## What shipped
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- `examples/research-sota/r12_1_pose_pabs_loop.py` — pure-numpy 50-frame walking-subject + intruder-at-T=25 simulation.
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- `examples/research-sota/r12_1_pose_pabs_results.json`
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- `docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/R12_1-pose-pabs-closed-loop.md`
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## Headline
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| Phase | Fixed-expected (R12 naive) | Pose-updated (R12.1 loop) |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Pre-intruder (subject walking) | 6.02 | **0.30** |
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| Post-intruder | 7.76 | **2.84** |
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| **Intruder detection lift** | **1.29×** | **9.36×** |
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**Pose updates suppress subject-motion noise by 20×** (6.02 → 0.30), leaving the intruder as a clean 9.36× spike.
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## Why this matters
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R12 PABS gave 1,161× lift in static scenes but had false alarms when subjects moved. R12.1 closes this gap: the forward model is updated each frame from a simulated pose tracker (5 cm noise, matching ADR-079's 95% PCK@20). Subject motion gets absorbed into the prediction; only the intruder remains as unexplained residual.
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## R12 thread fully closed (3 ticks)
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| Tick | State | Headline |
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|---|---|---:|
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| R12 (tick 5) | NEGATIVE | SVD eigenshift fails: 0.69× signal/drift |
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| R12 PABS (tick 19) | POSITIVE | 1,161× intruder detection (static) |
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| **R12.1 (this)** | **CLOSED LOOP** | **9.36× intruder detection (dynamic)** |
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Failure → success with caveat → success without caveat. The multi-tick arc that justifies a long research loop.
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## Production roadmap (the Rust glue)
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R12 PABS catalogued ~50-100 LOC. Concretely:
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```rust
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let pose = pose_tracker.estimate(csi_window)?;
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let expected_scene = body_model.from_pose(pose) + room_walls;
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let y_predicted = fresnel_forward.simulate(expected_scene);
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let pabs = (csi_window - y_predicted).norm_sq() / csi_window.norm_sq();
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if pabs > threshold { emit_structure_event(); }
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```
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~80 LOC + ~30 LOC plumbing. Slot into existing vital_signs cog per-frame inference path.
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## Composes with prior threads
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- R6.1 forward operator
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- R7 mincut per-link PABS-after-pose-update is the precise multi-link consistency quantity
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- R12 PABS closes deferred item
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- R14 V0 security feature (intruder detection) now shippable
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- R10/R11 wildlife/maritime variants
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- ADR-079/101 pose pipeline is critical-path
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- ADR-105/106/107/108 fully on-device
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## Honest scope
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- 5 cm pose noise matches ADR-079; worse without good signal
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- Continuous-time tracking assumed (pose tracker fails → revert to baseline)
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- Single subject (multi-subject = data association work)
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- Static walls assumed (re-baselining needed for furniture changes)
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- Synthetic data only
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## Coordination
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`ticks/tick-29.md`. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch `research/sota-r12.1-pose-pabs-loop`.
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## All research-loop work substantively complete
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After this tick, the loop has:
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- 13 research threads (R1, R3, R5-R15)
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- 4 ADRs in the privacy chain (105, 106, 107, 108)
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- 3 negative-result categories (physics-floor, architecture-error, missing-tool)
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- 2 explicit self-corrections (R6.2.2 → R6.2.2.1; R6.2.2.1 → R6.2.4)
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- 3 honest-scope findings (R3.1, R6.2.2.1, R3.2)
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- R6 placement family (9 ticks: R6, R6.1, R6.2, R6.2.1, R6.2.2, R6.2.2.1, R6.2.3, R6.2.4, R6.2.5)
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- R3 cross-room re-ID arc (3 ticks: R3, R3.1, R3.2)
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- R12 structure detection arc (3 ticks: R12, R12 PABS, R12.1)
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~2.1h to cron stop. Next tick is either:
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1. An integrative tick (e.g. ADR amendment summarising R6 placement family for ADR-029)
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2. Start consolidating but NOT the final 00-summary yet (premature)
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3. Find another concrete experiment
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