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Tick 29 — 2026-05-22 09:53 UTC

Thread: R12.1 (pose-PABS closed loop) Verdict: Synthetic validation of R12 PABS's deferred closure. Pose-updated pipeline gives 9.36× intruder detection lift vs fixed-expected's 1.29×. False-alarm problem from R12 PABS resolved. R12 thread fully closed.

What shipped

examples/research-sota/r12_1_pose_pabs_loop.py — pure-numpy 50-frame walking-subject + intruder-at-T=25 simulation.
examples/research-sota/r12_1_pose_pabs_results.json
docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/R12_1-pose-pabs-closed-loop.md

Headline

Phase	Fixed-expected (R12 naive)	Pose-updated (R12.1 loop)
Pre-intruder (subject walking)	6.02	0.30
Post-intruder	7.76	2.84
Intruder detection lift	1.29×	9.36×

Pose updates suppress subject-motion noise by 20× (6.02 → 0.30), leaving the intruder as a clean 9.36× spike.

Why this matters

R12 PABS gave 1,161× lift in static scenes but had false alarms when subjects moved. R12.1 closes this gap: the forward model is updated each frame from a simulated pose tracker (5 cm noise, matching ADR-079's 95% PCK@20). Subject motion gets absorbed into the prediction; only the intruder remains as unexplained residual.

R12 thread fully closed (3 ticks)

Tick	State	Headline
R12 (tick 5)	NEGATIVE	SVD eigenshift fails: 0.69× signal/drift
R12 PABS (tick 19)	POSITIVE	1,161× intruder detection (static)
R12.1 (this)	CLOSED LOOP	9.36× intruder detection (dynamic)

Failure → success with caveat → success without caveat. The multi-tick arc that justifies a long research loop.

Production roadmap (the Rust glue)

R12 PABS catalogued ~50-100 LOC. Concretely:

let pose = pose_tracker.estimate(csi_window)?;
let expected_scene = body_model.from_pose(pose) + room_walls;
let y_predicted = fresnel_forward.simulate(expected_scene);
let pabs = (csi_window - y_predicted).norm_sq() / csi_window.norm_sq();
if pabs > threshold { emit_structure_event(); }

~80 LOC + ~30 LOC plumbing. Slot into existing vital_signs cog per-frame inference path.

Composes with prior threads

R6.1 forward operator
R7 mincut per-link PABS-after-pose-update is the precise multi-link consistency quantity
R12 PABS closes deferred item
R14 V0 security feature (intruder detection) now shippable
R10/R11 wildlife/maritime variants
ADR-079/101 pose pipeline is critical-path
ADR-105/106/107/108 fully on-device

Honest scope

5 cm pose noise matches ADR-079; worse without good signal
Continuous-time tracking assumed (pose tracker fails → revert to baseline)
Single subject (multi-subject = data association work)
Static walls assumed (re-baselining needed for furniture changes)
Synthetic data only

Coordination

ticks/tick-29.md. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch research/sota-r12.1-pose-pabs-loop.

All research-loop work substantively complete

After this tick, the loop has:

13 research threads (R1, R3, R5-R15)
4 ADRs in the privacy chain (105, 106, 107, 108)
3 negative-result categories (physics-floor, architecture-error, missing-tool)
2 explicit self-corrections (R6.2.2 → R6.2.2.1; R6.2.2.1 → R6.2.4)
3 honest-scope findings (R3.1, R6.2.2.1, R3.2)
R6 placement family (9 ticks: R6, R6.1, R6.2, R6.2.1, R6.2.2, R6.2.2.1, R6.2.3, R6.2.4, R6.2.5)
R3 cross-room re-ID arc (3 ticks: R3, R3.1, R3.2)
R12 structure detection arc (3 ticks: R12, R12 PABS, R12.1)

~2.1h to cron stop. Next tick is either:

An integrative tick (e.g. ADR amendment summarising R6 placement family for ADR-029)
Start consolidating but NOT the final 00-summary yet (premature)
Find another concrete experiment

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