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wifi-densepose/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks
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rUv 759b487a82
research(R20.1): working Bayesian fusion demo for ADR-114 — empirically validates R13 NEG + doc 16 cube-law (#743) 
Runnable numpy demo of ADR-114's three-input Bayesian fusion architecture.
~140 LOC pure NumPy. Validates the architecture before Rust implementation.

Headline (true breathing=15 BPM, true HR=72 BPM):

| Pipeline                | Breathing | HR        | HRV contour     |
|-------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------------|
| Classical (R14 V1)      | 15.00 BPM | 105 BPM   | not available   |
|                         | conf 69%  | conf 38%  | (R13 confirms)  |
| NV @ 1 m (6.25 pT)      | n/a       | 72.00 BPM | SDNN 119 ms     |
| NV @ 2 m (0.78 pT)      | n/a       | 96  marginal | degrading    |
| NV @ 3 m (0.23 pT)      | n/a       | 166 lost  | NO              |
| FUSED (ADR-114)         | 15.00 BPM | 84 BPM    | SDNN 119 ms     |

Five confirmations:
1. Classical breathing rate is reliable (R14 V1 holds)
2. Classical HR is unreliable (R13 NEGATIVE EMPIRICALLY CONFIRMED:
   38% confidence, 105 BPM estimate when truth was 72)
3. NV cardiac at 1 m works (R13 recovery validated)
4. CUBE-OF-DISTANCE FALLOFF IS REAL (doc 16 validated: 27x signal
   drop from 1 m to 3 m, matches 1/r^3 prediction)
5. Fusion produces correct breathing + improved HR at bedside

Doc 16's 40-mile reality check = same physics x 60,000x distance.
Press-release physics confirmed unphysical via working code.

Caveat documented: demo's naive precision-weighted Bayesian gave
84 BPM (between classical 105 wrong and NV 72 right). Production
fix catalogued — threshold-based hand-off when NV conf > 60% AND
B-field > 3 pT, trust NV entirely.

Engineering risk for ADR-114 Rust port (200 LOC, 3 weeks) lowered
substantially: this 140 LOC numpy demo runs in <100 ms.

Four-tick arc:
- 11:15 UTC: R20 vision
- 11:25 UTC: Doc 17 bridge
- 11:35 UTC: ADR-114 spec
- 11:40 UTC: R20.1 WORKING CODE
Vision -> integration -> spec -> working code in 25 minutes.

Honest scope:
- Synthetic signals throughout
- Cube-of-distance assumes clean dipole field
- 5 deg phase noise assumes phase_align.rs applied
- HRV extraction = simple threshold; production = Pan-Tompkins
- NV noise = 1 pT/sqrt(Hz) Gaussian; real has 1/f + interference

Composes with:
- ADR-114 (validates architecture)
- R13 NEGATIVE (empirically confirmed)
- R14 V1 (breathing rate primitive validated)
- Doc 16 (cube-of-distance bound validated)
- Doc 17 (buildable demo of 5y bucket)
- ADR-089 nvsim (standalone simulator usage)

User signal: opened quantum doc 11 four times across consecutive ticks.
Continuing the quantum-fusion direction with concrete code.

Coordination: ticks/tick-40.md, no PROGRESS.md edit.

Full quantum-classical fusion arc is now SHIPPABLE:
- Vision (R20)
- Integration (doc 17)
- Spec (ADR-114)
- Working demo (R20.1)
 		2026-05-22 07:48:08 -04:00
..
tick-5.md research(R12): RF weather mapping eigenshift — negative-ish, with clearly-actionable revision path (#707) 2026-05-21 23:52:49 -04:00
tick-6.md research(R10): through-foliage wildlife sensing — physics feasibility + per-species gait taxonomy 2026-05-22 00:59:11 -04:00
tick-7.md research(R14): empathic appliances — vision + ethical framework + infrastructure gap inventory (#709) 2026-05-22 01:18:01 -04:00
tick-8.md research(R6): Fresnel-zone forward model — bedrock physics for CSI sensitivity (#710) 2026-05-22 01:31:09 -04:00
tick-9.md research(R1): ToA CRLB — precision floor for WiFi multistatic localisation (#711) 2026-05-22 01:38:35 -04:00
tick-10.md research(R11): maritime sensing — through-bulkhead impossible, through-seam works (#712) 2026-05-22 01:53:51 -04:00
tick-11.md research(R13): NEGATIVE — contactless BP from CSI is physically inferior to a cuff (#713) 2026-05-22 02:00:35 -04:00
tick-12.md research(R3): cross-room re-ID — MERIDIAN closes the env-shift gap + 4 privacy constraints (#715) 2026-05-22 02:13:10 -04:00
tick-13.md research(R4) + adr-105: federated CSI training with MERIDIAN+Krum+mincut (#716) 2026-05-22 02:24:42 -04:00
tick-14.md research(R15): RF biometric primitives — 5 environment-invariant features with quantified discriminability (#717) 2026-05-22 02:38:10 -04:00
tick-15.md adr-106: differential privacy + biometric primitive isolation for federation (#718) 2026-05-22 02:48:16 -04:00
tick-16.md research(R6.2): Fresnel-aware antenna placement — 93x sensing-coverage lift from physics alone (#719) 2026-05-22 03:04:17 -04:00
tick-17.md research(R6.2.2): N-anchor multistatic placement saturation — practical knee at N=5 (#720) 2026-05-22 03:17:14 -04:00
tick-18.md research(R6.1): multi-scatterer Fresnel — discovers 4.7 dB penalty matching R13's 5-dB shortfall (#721) 2026-05-22 03:36:42 -04:00
tick-19.md research(R12 PABS): NEGATIVE -> POSITIVE — 1161x detection lift via R6.1 forward model (#722) 2026-05-22 03:49:41 -04:00
tick-20.md research(R3.1): physics-informed env prediction at raw-CSI level — NEGATIVE (architecture-error) (#723) 2026-05-22 04:04:38 -04:00
tick-21.md research(R6.2.1): 3D antenna placement — ceiling-only gives 0% coverage; mixed-height wins (#724) 2026-05-22 04:17:47 -04:00
tick-22.md adr-107: cross-installation federation with secure aggregation — privacy chain closes (#725) 2026-05-22 04:27:48 -04:00
tick-23.md research(R6.2.3): chest-centric placement — +26.9 pp coverage gain for vital-signs cogs (#726) 2026-05-22 04:43:34 -04:00
tick-24.md research(R6.2.2.1): 3D N-anchor multistatic — 2D knee disappears; revises R6.2.2 down (#727) 2026-05-22 04:58:10 -04:00
tick-25.md research(R6.2.4): 3D chest-centric N-anchor — validates R6.2.2.1 prediction with refinement (#728) 2026-05-22 05:12:48 -04:00
tick-26.md research(R3.2): embedding-level physics-informed env — structural validation + AETHER dependency (#729) 2026-05-22 05:24:53 -04:00
tick-27.md research(R6.2.5): multi-subject occupancy union — N=5 hits 100% for 4 occupants; R6 family complete (#730) 2026-05-22 05:37:29 -04:00
tick-28.md adr-108: Kyber post-quantum key exchange for cross-installation federation (#731) 2026-05-22 05:45:32 -04:00
tick-29.md research(R12.1): pose-PABS closed loop — 9.36x intruder lift; R12 arc fully closed (#732) 2026-05-22 05:56:57 -04:00
tick-30.md adr-109: Dilithium PQC signatures — provenance side of post-quantum migration (#733) 2026-05-22 06:06:05 -04:00
tick-31.md adr-113: multistatic placement strategy — consolidates 9-tick R6 family into decision matrix (#734) 2026-05-22 06:17:21 -04:00
tick-32.md research(R16): healthcare ward monitoring — composes loop primitives, no new research (#735) 2026-05-22 06:27:00 -04:00
tick-33.md research(R17): industrial safety — second vertical composing loop primitives (#736) 2026-05-22 06:40:40 -04:00
tick-34.md research(R18): disaster response — first vertical integrating with existing repo crate (wifi-densepose-mat) (#737) 2026-05-22 06:50:47 -04:00
tick-35.md research: production roadmap synthesis — every loop output mapped to owner/LOC/priority (#738) 2026-05-22 07:00:31 -04:00
tick-36.md research(R19): agricultural livestock — seventh exotic vertical, first non-human-centric (#739) 2026-05-22 07:08:47 -04:00
tick-37.md research(R20): quantum sensing integration — recovers R13 NEGATIVE via NV-diamond magnetometry (#740) 2026-05-22 07:17:23 -04:00
tick-38.md quantum-sensing(doc 17): honest classical-quantum fusion — bridges SOTA loop with quantum series 11-16 (#741) 2026-05-22 07:28:24 -04:00
tick-39.md adr-114: cog-quantum-vitals — first quantum-augmented cog spec, recovers R13 NEGATIVE (#742) 2026-05-22 07:37:44 -04:00
tick-40.md research(R20.1): working Bayesian fusion demo for ADR-114 — empirically validates R13 NEG + doc 16 cube-law (#743) 2026-05-22 07:48:08 -04:00