81 lines
4.2 KiB
Markdown
81 lines
4.2 KiB
Markdown
# Tick 20 — 2026-05-22 07:54 UTC
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**Thread:** R3.1 (physics-informed env_sig prediction at raw-CSI level) — **NEGATIVE (architecture-error category)**
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**Verdict:** The naive "subtract predicted env from raw CSI" fails at chance level. Even the labelled MERIDIAN oracle fails at raw-CSI level. The fix: apply physics-informed prediction at the **AETHER embedding level**, not raw CSI.
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## What shipped
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- `examples/research-sota/r3_1_physics_informed_env.py` — pure-numpy two-room cross-room experiment.
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- `examples/research-sota/r3_1_physics_env_results.json` — machine-readable result.
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- `docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/R3_1-physics-informed-env-prediction.md` — research note documenting the negative + corrected architecture.
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## Headline
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| Configuration | 1-shot K-NN accuracy |
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| Within-room baseline | 100% |
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| Cross-room raw | **10% (= chance)** |
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| Cross-room labelled MERIDIAN (oracle) | **10% (= chance)** |
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| Cross-room physics-informed | **10% (= chance)** |
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All three cross-room approaches collapse to chance — including the labelled oracle. Position-dependent within-room variance dominates per-subject signature at the raw-CSI level.
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## Why this is a meaningful negative
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R3 (tick 12) showed MERIDIAN works in **AETHER embedding space** (where position-invariance is already done). R3.1 surfaces that at **raw CSI level**, where position-invariance hasn't been done yet, no env-subtraction method works — because the variance you'd subtract isn't the variance you need to remove.
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**Surfaces an architecture error before implementation.** Future engineer attempting "subtract predicted env from raw CSI" would waste weeks; R3.1 documents the failure path.
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## Corrected architecture
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```
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raw CSI -> AETHER embedding head (position-invariant) -> physics-informed env subtraction -> cross-room K-NN
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```
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Physics-informed prediction must be applied at the **embedding level**, not raw level. AETHER already removes position-dependent variation; the predicted-env subtraction then has only the room-shift component to remove.
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## Three kinds of negative result the loop has now demonstrated
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| Kind | Example | Outcome |
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|---|---|---|
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| **Missing-tool** (revisitable) | R12 NEGATIVE → R12 PABS POSITIVE | Tool became available later (R6.1) and approach worked |
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| **Physics-floor** (permanent) | R13 contactless BP | Hard 5 dB wall; no tool changes this |
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| **Architecture-error** (correctable) | R3.1 (this tick) | Right idea, wrong application level; corrected architecture explicit but not yet implemented |
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Categorising negatives by their resolution path is itself a research contribution. This is the loop's most "meta" tick.
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## Composes with prior threads
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- **R3 (POSITIVE in embedding space)** — confirmed indirectly; raw-level failure shows why R3 operated at embedding level
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- **R6.1** — operator is correct; application level was wrong
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- **R12 PABS (POSITIVE)** — operates in raw space because comparison is within-room (no cross-room transfer needed)
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- **R13 (NEGATIVE, physics floor)** vs **R3.1 (NEGATIVE, architecture error)** — two different kinds of negative
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- **R14/R15/ADR-105/ADR-106** — privacy framework holds; corrected architecture still on-device
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## Honest scope
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- Weak per-subject signature (body-size only); richer biometric input (gait, breathing, RCS) might partially rescue raw-level
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- 3 positions per room; more positions sharpen the failure, fewer would partially work
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- Position-variance dominance is geometry-specific
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- Didn't test "per-position-cluster centroid" (might work but defeats no-label spirit)
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## Coordination
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`ticks/tick-20.md`. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch `research/sota-r3.1-physics-env-prediction`.
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## Remaining work
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- **R3.2**: embedding-level physics-informed env prediction (corrected architecture)
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- **R12.1**: pose-PABS closed loop (still highest-leverage)
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- **R6.2.1**: 3D placement
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- **R6.2.3**: chest-centric zones
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- **ADR-107**: cross-installation federation
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~4.1h to cron stop. **20 ticks landed.** Loop now has:
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- 13 research threads (R1-R15)
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- 3 negative results (R13 physics-floor, R3.1 architecture-error, R12 revisited-to-positive)
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- 2 ADRs (ADR-105, ADR-106)
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- 5 deferred follow-ups closed (R6.2, R6.2.2, R6.1, R12 PABS, R3.1)
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Pattern: ~3 ticks per hour sustained over 8 hours.
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