wifi-densepose/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22
rUv ab80280f93
research: production roadmap synthesis — every loop output mapped to owner/LOC/priority (#738)
Terminal output of the SOTA research loop. Maps every research finding
to owner, LOC estimate, dependency, and priority across 6 tiers.

Total engineering budget across the loop's output:
- Tier 1 (Q3 2026):     ~490 LOC, 3-4 person-weeks
- Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026): ~1180 LOC, 6-8 person-weeks
- Tier 3 (2027):       ~1140 LOC, 8-10 person-weeks
- Tier 4-5 (long horizon): ~700+ LOC, 6-8 person-weeks
- TOTAL:               ~3,500 LOC, ~25 person-weeks

Tier 1 (next quarter) ships:
- 1.1 wifi-densepose plan-antennas CLI tool (360 LOC) -- 93x placement lift
- 1.2 R12.1 pose-PABS in vital_signs cog (80 LOC) -- 9.36x intruder lift
- 1.3 cog-person-count v0.0.3 chest-centric (50 LOC)
- 1.4 ADR-029 amendment w/ ADR-113 matrix (0 LOC)

Critical-path graph:
1.1 + 1.2 -> 1.3 -> 2.1 ruview-fed -> 2.2 DP-vital-signs -> 3.1 cross-install -> 3.2 PQC
                                  +-> 3.3 real-AETHER -> 3.4 fall-detect
                                                       +-> 4.x verticals

Why this matters: after 35 ticks of research output, this is the
document that lets a team pick up and ship without re-reading the 34
research notes. Priority alignment, estimate-anchoring, critical-path
visibility — all in one place.

R-thread mapping:
- R5/R6/R6.2 family/R6.1 -> Tier 1
- R12/R12.1 PABS -> Tier 1.2
- R3/R3.1/R3.2/R14/R15 -> Tier 2-3
- R7 mincut -> Tier 2 (in ruview-fed)
- R13 NEGATIVE -> rules out BP, no Tier line
- R10/R11/R16/R17/R18 verticals -> Tier 4-5

Composes with every loop output. Every thread, ADR, vertical sketch
has a line in some Tier. The TERMINAL output that needs the synthesis
power of a research loop to produce.

Honest scope:
- Estimates synthetic-data-based; may shift after bench validation
- Critical-path may have hidden dependencies (e.g. AgentDB schema)
- 25 person-weeks assumes full-time engineers
- Doesn't include integration testing, documentation, deployment ops
- Tiers based on architectural dependency, not business priority

Loop status after 35 ticks:
- 16 research threads
- 6 exotic verticals
- 6 new ADRs (105/106/107/108/109/113)
- 3 negative result categories
- 2 self-corrections
- 3 honest-scope findings
- 9-tick R6 family (complete)
- 3-tick R3 arc (complete)
- 3-tick R12 arc (complete)
- This production roadmap

00-summary.md will follow at 12:00 UTC / 08:00 ET cron stop.

Coordination: ticks/tick-35.md, no PROGRESS.md edit.
2026-05-22 07:00:31 -04:00
..
ticks research: production roadmap synthesis — every loop output mapped to owner/LOC/priority (#738) 2026-05-22 07:00:31 -04:00
HORIZON.md docs(horizon): M3-M7 complete — close 12h autonomous SOTA run 2026-05-22 00:06:40 -04:00
PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md research: production roadmap synthesis — every loop output mapped to owner/LOC/priority (#738) 2026-05-22 07:00:31 -04:00
PROGRESS.md feat(tools/ruview-mcp): M2 — wire real inference via cog health (#706) 2026-05-21 23:43:32 -04:00
R1-toa-crlb.md research(R1): ToA CRLB — precision floor for WiFi multistatic localisation (#711) 2026-05-22 01:38:35 -04:00
R3-crossroom-reid.md research(R3): cross-room re-ID — MERIDIAN closes the env-shift gap + 4 privacy constraints (#715) 2026-05-22 02:13:10 -04:00
R3_1-physics-informed-env-prediction.md research(R3.1): physics-informed env prediction at raw-CSI level — NEGATIVE (architecture-error) (#723) 2026-05-22 04:04:38 -04:00
R3_2-embedding-level-physics-env.md research(R3.2): embedding-level physics-informed env — structural validation + AETHER dependency (#729) 2026-05-22 05:24:53 -04:00
R5-subcarrier-saliency.md research(sota): kick off SOTA research loop + first R5 saliency measurement (#702) 2026-05-21 23:05:55 -04:00
R6-fresnel-forward-model.md research(R6): Fresnel-zone forward model — bedrock physics for CSI sensitivity (#710) 2026-05-22 01:31:09 -04:00
R6_1-multiscatterer-forward-model.md research(R6.1): multi-scatterer Fresnel — discovers 4.7 dB penalty matching R13's 5-dB shortfall (#721) 2026-05-22 03:36:42 -04:00
R6_2-fresnel-antenna-placement.md research(R6.2): Fresnel-aware antenna placement — 93x sensing-coverage lift from physics alone (#719) 2026-05-22 03:04:17 -04:00
R6_2_1-3d-placement.md research(R6.2.1): 3D antenna placement — ceiling-only gives 0% coverage; mixed-height wins (#724) 2026-05-22 04:17:47 -04:00
R6_2_2-multistatic-placement.md research(R6.2.2): N-anchor multistatic placement saturation — practical knee at N=5 (#720) 2026-05-22 03:17:14 -04:00
R6_2_2_1-3d-multistatic.md research(R6.2.2.1): 3D N-anchor multistatic — 2D knee disappears; revises R6.2.2 down (#727) 2026-05-22 04:58:10 -04:00
R6_2_3-chest-centric-placement.md research(R6.2.3): chest-centric placement — +26.9 pp coverage gain for vital-signs cogs (#726) 2026-05-22 04:43:34 -04:00
R6_2_4-3d-chest-multistatic.md research(R6.2.4): 3D chest-centric N-anchor — validates R6.2.2.1 prediction with refinement (#728) 2026-05-22 05:12:48 -04:00
R6_2_5-multi-subject-union.md research(R6.2.5): multi-subject occupancy union — N=5 hits 100% for 4 occupants; R6 family complete (#730) 2026-05-22 05:37:29 -04:00
R7-multilink-consistency.md research(R7): Stoer-Wagner mincut detects adversarial CSI nodes 3/3 in synthetic (#704) 2026-05-21 23:28:46 -04:00
R8-rssi-only-count.md research(R8): RSSI-only person count retains 95% of full-CSI accuracy (#703) 2026-05-21 23:18:09 -04:00
R9-rssi-fingerprint-knn.md feat(tools/ruview-mcp): M2 — wire real inference via cog health (#706) 2026-05-21 23:43:32 -04:00
R10-through-foliage-wildlife.md research(R10): through-foliage wildlife sensing — physics feasibility + per-species gait taxonomy 2026-05-22 00:59:11 -04:00
R11-maritime-sensing.md research(R11): maritime sensing — through-bulkhead impossible, through-seam works (#712) 2026-05-22 01:53:51 -04:00
R12-pabs-implementation.md research(R12 PABS): NEGATIVE -> POSITIVE — 1161x detection lift via R6.1 forward model (#722) 2026-05-22 03:49:41 -04:00
R12-rf-weather-mapping.md research(R12): RF weather mapping eigenshift — negative-ish, with clearly-actionable revision path (#707) 2026-05-21 23:52:49 -04:00
R12_1-pose-pabs-closed-loop.md research(R12.1): pose-PABS closed loop — 9.36x intruder lift; R12 arc fully closed (#732) 2026-05-22 05:56:57 -04:00
R13-contactless-bp-negative.md research(R13): NEGATIVE — contactless BP from CSI is physically inferior to a cuff (#713) 2026-05-22 02:00:35 -04:00
R14-empathic-appliances.md research(R14): empathic appliances — vision + ethical framework + infrastructure gap inventory (#709) 2026-05-22 01:18:01 -04:00
R15-rf-biometric-primitives.md research(R15): RF biometric primitives — 5 environment-invariant features with quantified discriminability (#717) 2026-05-22 02:38:10 -04:00
R16-healthcare-ward-monitoring.md research(R16): healthcare ward monitoring — composes loop primitives, no new research (#735) 2026-05-22 06:27:00 -04:00
R17-industrial-safety.md research(R17): industrial safety — second vertical composing loop primitives (#736) 2026-05-22 06:40:40 -04:00
R18-disaster-response.md research(R18): disaster response — first vertical integrating with existing repo crate (wifi-densepose-mat) (#737) 2026-05-22 06:50:47 -04:00