/** * Emergent Capability Detection System * Monitors and measures the emergence of unexpected capabilities in the system */ export class EmergentCapabilityDetector { detectedCapabilities = new Map(); baselineCapabilities = new Set(); monitoringPatterns = new Map(); emergenceThresholds = { novelty: 0.7, utility: 0.5, stability: 0.6, evidence: 3 }; detectionHistory = []; /** * Initialize baseline capabilities */ initializeBaseline(capabilities) { this.baselineCapabilities = new Set(capabilities); console.log(`Initialized baseline with ${capabilities.length} capabilities`); } /** * Monitor system behavior for emergent capabilities */ async monitorForEmergence(behaviorData) { const newCapabilities = []; // Detect novel behaviors const novelBehaviors = this.detectNovelBehaviors(behaviorData); newCapabilities.push(...novelBehaviors); // Detect unexpected solutions const unexpectedSolutions = this.detectUnexpectedSolutions(behaviorData); newCapabilities.push(...unexpectedSolutions); // Detect cross-domain insights const crossDomainInsights = this.detectCrossDomainInsights(behaviorData); newCapabilities.push(...crossDomainInsights); // Detect self-organization patterns const selfOrganization = this.detectSelfOrganization(behaviorData); newCapabilities.push(...selfOrganization); // Detect meta-learning capabilities const metaLearning = this.detectMetaLearning(behaviorData); newCapabilities.push(...metaLearning); // Validate and store new capabilities for (const capability of newCapabilities) { if (this.validateEmergentCapability(capability)) { this.detectedCapabilities.set(capability.id, capability); this.logCapabilityEmergence(capability); } } return newCapabilities; } /** * Analyze the stability of emergent capabilities over time */ analyzeCapabilityStability() { const stabilityScores = new Map(); for (const [id, capability] of this.detectedCapabilities) { const stability = this.calculateStabilityScore(capability); stabilityScores.set(id, stability); // Update capability stability capability.stability = stability; } return stabilityScores; } /** * Measure overall emergence metrics */ measureEmergenceMetrics() { const capabilities = Array.from(this.detectedCapabilities.values()); return { emergenceRate: this.calculateEmergenceRate(), stabilityIndex: this.calculateStabilityIndex(capabilities), diversityScore: this.calculateDiversityScore(capabilities), complexityGrowth: this.calculateComplexityGrowth(), crossDomainConnections: this.calculateCrossDomainConnections(capabilities), selfOrganizationLevel: this.calculateSelfOrganizationLevel(capabilities) }; } /** * Predict potential future emergent capabilities */ predictFutureEmergence() { const predictions = []; // Analyze current trends const trends = this.analyzeTrends(); // Predict based on combination patterns const combinationPredictions = this.predictFromCombinations(); predictions.push(...combinationPredictions); // Predict based on growth patterns const growthPredictions = this.predictFromGrowthPatterns(trends); predictions.push(...growthPredictions); // Predict based on missing capabilities const gapPredictions = this.predictFromCapabilityGaps(); predictions.push(...gapPredictions); return predictions; } /** * Detect novel behaviors not in baseline */ detectNovelBehaviors(behaviorData) { const capabilities = []; // Analyze behavior patterns const behaviors = this.extractBehaviorPatterns(behaviorData); for (const behavior of behaviors) { if (!this.isBaselineBehavior(behavior)) { const novelty = this.calculateNovelty(behavior); const utility = this.calculateUtility(behavior); if (novelty > this.emergenceThresholds.novelty) { capabilities.push({ id: `novel_behavior_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`, name: `Novel Behavior: ${behavior.name}`, description: `Newly emerged behavior pattern: ${behavior.description}`, type: 'novel_behavior', strength: behavior.strength || 0.5, novelty, utility, stability: 0.5, // Initial stability timestamp: Date.now(), evidence: [{ type: 'behavioral', description: 'New behavior pattern detected', data: behavior, strength: novelty, timestamp: Date.now(), source: 'behavior_monitor' }], preconditions: behavior.preconditions || [], triggers: behavior.triggers || [] }); } } } return capabilities; } /** * Detect unexpected problem-solving approaches */ detectUnexpectedSolutions(behaviorData) { const capabilities = []; const solutions = this.extractSolutionPatterns(behaviorData); for (const solution of solutions) { const unexpectedness = this.calculateUnexpectedness(solution); const effectiveness = this.calculateEffectiveness(solution); if (unexpectedness > 0.6 && effectiveness > this.emergenceThresholds.utility) { capabilities.push({ id: `unexpected_solution_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`, name: `Unexpected Solution: ${solution.problemType}`, description: `Novel approach to solving ${solution.problemType}: ${solution.approach}`, type: 'unexpected_solution', strength: effectiveness, novelty: unexpectedness, utility: effectiveness, stability: 0.5, timestamp: Date.now(), evidence: [{ type: 'performance', description: 'Unexpected but effective solution approach', data: solution, strength: effectiveness, timestamp: Date.now(), source: 'solution_monitor' }], preconditions: solution.preconditions || [], triggers: [solution.problemType] }); } } return capabilities; } /** * Detect insights that bridge different domains */ detectCrossDomainInsights(behaviorData) { const capabilities = []; const insights = this.extractCrossDomainPatterns(behaviorData); for (const insight of insights) { const bridgingScore = this.calculateBridgingScore(insight); const insightValue = this.calculateInsightValue(insight); if (bridgingScore > 0.7 && insightValue > this.emergenceThresholds.utility) { capabilities.push({ id: `cross_domain_insight_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`, name: `Cross-Domain Insight: ${insight.domains.join(' + ')}`, description: `Insight connecting ${insight.domains.join(' and ')}: ${insight.insight}`, type: 'cross_domain_insight', strength: insightValue, novelty: bridgingScore, utility: insightValue, stability: 0.5, timestamp: Date.now(), evidence: [{ type: 'pattern', description: 'Cross-domain connection discovered', data: insight, strength: bridgingScore, timestamp: Date.now(), source: 'domain_monitor' }], preconditions: insight.preconditions || [], triggers: insight.domains }); } } return capabilities; } /** * Detect self-organizing behaviors */ detectSelfOrganization(behaviorData) { const capabilities = []; const organizationPatterns = this.extractOrganizationPatterns(behaviorData); for (const pattern of organizationPatterns) { const organizationLevel = this.calculateOrganizationLevel(pattern); const autonomy = this.calculateAutonomy(pattern); if (organizationLevel > 0.6 && autonomy > 0.5) { capabilities.push({ id: `self_organization_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`, name: `Self-Organization: ${pattern.type}`, description: `Autonomous organization in ${pattern.domain}: ${pattern.description}`, type: 'self_organization', strength: organizationLevel, novelty: autonomy, utility: organizationLevel * autonomy, stability: 0.5, timestamp: Date.now(), evidence: [{ type: 'behavioral', description: 'Self-organizing behavior detected', data: pattern, strength: organizationLevel, timestamp: Date.now(), source: 'organization_monitor' }], preconditions: pattern.preconditions || [], triggers: [pattern.domain] }); } } return capabilities; } /** * Detect meta-learning capabilities */ detectMetaLearning(behaviorData) { const capabilities = []; const learningPatterns = this.extractLearningPatterns(behaviorData); for (const pattern of learningPatterns) { const metaLevel = this.calculateMetaLevel(pattern); const adaptability = this.calculateAdaptability(pattern); if (metaLevel > 0.6 && adaptability > 0.5) { capabilities.push({ id: `meta_learning_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`, name: `Meta-Learning: ${pattern.type}`, description: `Learning to learn in ${pattern.domain}: ${pattern.mechanism}`, type: 'meta_learning', strength: adaptability, novelty: metaLevel, utility: adaptability, stability: 0.5, timestamp: Date.now(), evidence: [{ type: 'performance', description: 'Meta-learning capability detected', data: pattern, strength: metaLevel, timestamp: Date.now(), source: 'learning_monitor' }], preconditions: pattern.preconditions || [], triggers: [pattern.domain] }); } } return capabilities; } /** * Validate that a capability meets emergence criteria */ validateEmergentCapability(capability) { // Check thresholds if (capability.novelty < this.emergenceThresholds.novelty) return false; if (capability.utility < this.emergenceThresholds.utility) return false; if (capability.evidence.length < this.emergenceThresholds.evidence) return false; // Check for sufficient evidence strength const avgEvidenceStrength = capability.evidence.reduce((sum, e) => sum + e.strength, 0) / capability.evidence.length; if (avgEvidenceStrength < 0.5) return false; // Check for uniqueness for (const existing of this.detectedCapabilities.values()) { if (this.calculateCapabilitySimilarity(capability, existing) > 0.8) { return false; // Too similar to existing capability } } return true; } /** * Calculate stability score for a capability */ calculateStabilityScore(capability) { const timeSinceEmergence = Date.now() - capability.timestamp; const daysSinceEmergence = timeSinceEmergence / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24); // Capabilities are more stable if they persist over time const persistenceScore = Math.min(1.0, daysSinceEmergence / 7); // Stabilizes over a week // Check if capability has been consistently observed const recentObservations = this.detectionHistory .filter(h => h.capabilityId === capability.id) .filter(h => Date.now() - h.timestamp < 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000); // Last week const observationFrequency = recentObservations.length / 7; // Observations per day const frequencyScore = Math.min(1.0, observationFrequency / 0.5); // Target: 0.5 observations per day return (persistenceScore + frequencyScore) / 2; } /** * Calculate emergence rate */ calculateEmergenceRate() { const recentCapabilities = Array.from(this.detectedCapabilities.values()) .filter(c => Date.now() - c.timestamp < 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000); // Last week return recentCapabilities.length / 7; // Capabilities per day } /** * Calculate stability index */ calculateStabilityIndex(capabilities) { if (capabilities.length === 0) return 0; const avgStability = capabilities.reduce((sum, c) => sum + c.stability, 0) / capabilities.length; return avgStability; } /** * Calculate diversity score */ calculateDiversityScore(capabilities) { if (capabilities.length === 0) return 0; const types = new Set(capabilities.map(c => c.type)); const typeDistribution = Array.from(types).map(type => capabilities.filter(c => c.type === type).length / capabilities.length); // Shannon entropy for diversity const entropy = -typeDistribution.reduce((sum, p) => sum + p * Math.log2(p), 0); const maxEntropy = Math.log2(types.size); return maxEntropy > 0 ? entropy / maxEntropy : 0; } /** * Calculate complexity growth */ calculateComplexityGrowth() { const recent = Array.from(this.detectedCapabilities.values()) .filter(c => Date.now() - c.timestamp < 30 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000) // Last month .sort((a, b) => a.timestamp - b.timestamp); if (recent.length < 2) return 0; const complexityScores = recent.map(c => c.strength * c.novelty * c.utility); const earlyAvg = complexityScores.slice(0, Math.floor(complexityScores.length / 2)) .reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.floor(complexityScores.length / 2); const lateAvg = complexityScores.slice(Math.floor(complexityScores.length / 2)) .reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.ceil(complexityScores.length / 2); return lateAvg - earlyAvg; } /** * Calculate cross-domain connections */ calculateCrossDomainConnections(capabilities) { return capabilities.filter(c => c.type === 'cross_domain_insight').length; } /** * Calculate self-organization level */ calculateSelfOrganizationLevel(capabilities) { const selfOrgCapabilities = capabilities.filter(c => c.type === 'self_organization'); if (selfOrgCapabilities.length === 0) return 0; return selfOrgCapabilities.reduce((sum, c) => sum + c.strength, 0) / selfOrgCapabilities.length; } // Helper methods for pattern extraction and analysis extractBehaviorPatterns(data) { // Extract behavior patterns from data return data.behaviors || []; } extractSolutionPatterns(data) { // Extract solution patterns from data return data.solutions || []; } extractCrossDomainPatterns(data) { // Extract cross-domain patterns from data return data.crossDomainInsights || []; } extractOrganizationPatterns(data) { // Extract organization patterns from data return data.organizationPatterns || []; } extractLearningPatterns(data) { // Extract learning patterns from data return data.learningPatterns || []; } isBaselineBehavior(behavior) { return this.baselineCapabilities.has(behavior.name); } calculateNovelty(behavior) { // Calculate how novel this behavior is return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateUtility(behavior) { // Calculate utility of the behavior return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateUnexpectedness(solution) { // Calculate how unexpected this solution is return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateEffectiveness(solution) { // Calculate effectiveness of the solution return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateBridgingScore(insight) { // Calculate how well this insight bridges domains return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateInsightValue(insight) { // Calculate value of the insight return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateOrganizationLevel(pattern) { // Calculate level of self-organization return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateAutonomy(pattern) { // Calculate autonomy level return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateMetaLevel(pattern) { // Calculate meta-learning level return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateAdaptability(pattern) { // Calculate adaptability return Math.random() * 0.5 + 0.5; // Simplified } calculateCapabilitySimilarity(cap1, cap2) { // Calculate similarity between capabilities return Math.random() * 0.5; // Simplified } logCapabilityEmergence(capability) { this.detectionHistory.push({ capabilityId: capability.id, timestamp: Date.now(), type: capability.type, strength: capability.strength }); console.log(`New emergent capability detected: ${capability.name}`); } analyzeTrends() { // Analyze emergence trends return {}; } predictFromCombinations() { // Predict capabilities from existing combinations return []; } predictFromGrowthPatterns(trends) { // Predict based on growth patterns return []; } predictFromCapabilityGaps() { // Predict based on missing capabilities return []; } /** * Get detection statistics */ getStats() { const capabilities = Array.from(this.detectedCapabilities.values()); return { totalCapabilities: capabilities.length, byType: this.getCapabilitiesByType(capabilities), averageStability: this.calculateStabilityIndex(capabilities), emergenceRate: this.calculateEmergenceRate(), complexityGrowth: this.calculateComplexityGrowth(), mostRecentCapability: capabilities.sort((a, b) => b.timestamp - a.timestamp)[0]?.name || 'None', detectionHistory: this.detectionHistory.length }; } getCapabilitiesByType(capabilities) { const byType = {}; for (const capability of capabilities) { byType[capability.type] = (byType[capability.type] || 0) + 1; } return byType; } }