From ab80280f93c3c907d13edc7ce65d7895aab6e074 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: rUv Date: Fri, 22 May 2026 07:00:31 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?research:=20production=20roadmap=20synthesis=20?= =?UTF-8?q?=E2=80=94=20every=20loop=20output=20mapped=20to=20owner/LOC/pri?= =?UTF-8?q?ority=20(#738)?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Terminal output of the SOTA research loop. Maps every research finding to owner, LOC estimate, dependency, and priority across 6 tiers. Total engineering budget across the loop's output: - Tier 1 (Q3 2026): ~490 LOC, 3-4 person-weeks - Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026): ~1180 LOC, 6-8 person-weeks - Tier 3 (2027): ~1140 LOC, 8-10 person-weeks - Tier 4-5 (long horizon): ~700+ LOC, 6-8 person-weeks - TOTAL: ~3,500 LOC, ~25 person-weeks Tier 1 (next quarter) ships: - 1.1 wifi-densepose plan-antennas CLI tool (360 LOC) -- 93x placement lift - 1.2 R12.1 pose-PABS in vital_signs cog (80 LOC) -- 9.36x intruder lift - 1.3 cog-person-count v0.0.3 chest-centric (50 LOC) - 1.4 ADR-029 amendment w/ ADR-113 matrix (0 LOC) Critical-path graph: 1.1 + 1.2 -> 1.3 -> 2.1 ruview-fed -> 2.2 DP-vital-signs -> 3.1 cross-install -> 3.2 PQC +-> 3.3 real-AETHER -> 3.4 fall-detect +-> 4.x verticals Why this matters: after 35 ticks of research output, this is the document that lets a team pick up and ship without re-reading the 34 research notes. Priority alignment, estimate-anchoring, critical-path visibility — all in one place. R-thread mapping: - R5/R6/R6.2 family/R6.1 -> Tier 1 - R12/R12.1 PABS -> Tier 1.2 - R3/R3.1/R3.2/R14/R15 -> Tier 2-3 - R7 mincut -> Tier 2 (in ruview-fed) - R13 NEGATIVE -> rules out BP, no Tier line - R10/R11/R16/R17/R18 verticals -> Tier 4-5 Composes with every loop output. Every thread, ADR, vertical sketch has a line in some Tier. The TERMINAL output that needs the synthesis power of a research loop to produce. Honest scope: - Estimates synthetic-data-based; may shift after bench validation - Critical-path may have hidden dependencies (e.g. AgentDB schema) - 25 person-weeks assumes full-time engineers - Doesn't include integration testing, documentation, deployment ops - Tiers based on architectural dependency, not business priority Loop status after 35 ticks: - 16 research threads - 6 exotic verticals - 6 new ADRs (105/106/107/108/109/113) - 3 negative result categories - 2 self-corrections - 3 honest-scope findings - 9-tick R6 family (complete) - 3-tick R3 arc (complete) - 3-tick R12 arc (complete) - This production roadmap 00-summary.md will follow at 12:00 UTC / 08:00 ET cron stop. Coordination: ticks/tick-35.md, no PROGRESS.md edit. --- .../sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md | 279 ++++++++++++++++++ .../research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-35.md | 101 +++++++ 2 files changed, 380 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md create mode 100644 docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-35.md diff --git a/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md b/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..54a836e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md @@ -0,0 +1,279 @@ +# Production roadmap: from loop output to shipped product + +**Status:** synthesis — every loop finding mapped to a concrete next-step action · **2026-05-22** + +## Why this document exists + +The SOTA research loop produced 34+ ticks of physics, simulation, architecture, and vertical sketches. Without a roadmap, none of it ships. This document maps every loop output to: + +- **Owner** (which team / role picks it up) +- **LOC estimate** (rough engineering cost) +- **Dependencies** (what must land first) +- **Priority** (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW based on leverage × certainty) + +Reading order: top sections are the highest-leverage / shortest-path-to-ship items. Bottom sections are exotic / long-horizon work. + +## Tier 1 — Ship in next quarter (Q3 2026) + +### 1.1 — `wifi-densepose plan-antennas` CLI tool + +**Source ticks**: R6.2 / R6.2.1 / R6.2.2 / R6.2.2.1 / R6.2.3 / R6.2.4 / R6.2.5 / ADR-113 +**Owner**: CLI maintainer (per ADR-104) +**LOC**: ~360 (placement search engine, 4-axis matrix lookup, 3D ellipsoid extension, multi-target union) +**Dependencies**: none (reference numpy implementations exist in examples/research-sota/) +**Priority**: **HIGH** — 93× sensing-coverage lift from physics alone; existing customers can re-mount today + +```bash +wifi-densepose plan-antennas \ + --room 5 5 [Z] \ + --target NAME X Y W H [DX DY DZ] \ + --target-mode {body, chest} \ + --cog COG_NAME \ + --freq-ghz 2.4 \ + --n-anchors N +``` + +### 1.2 — R12.1 pose-PABS closed loop in `vital_signs` cog + +**Source ticks**: R12 PABS / R12.1 / R6.1 +**Owner**: `vital_signs.rs` maintainer +**LOC**: ~80 (PABS = ||observed − predicted||² / ||observed||², coupled with pose_tracker.rs updates) +**Dependencies**: existing pose pipeline (ADR-079, ADR-101), R6.1 multi-scatterer forward operator +**Priority**: **HIGH** — 9.36× intruder-detection lift; ships a V0 security feature + +### 1.3 — `cog-person-count` v0.0.3 with chest-centric placement + +**Source ticks**: R5 / R8 / R6.2.3 / ADR-113 +**Owner**: cog-person-count maintainer (ADR-103) +**LOC**: ~50 (placement-aware training config + per-cog `--target-mode=body` default in ADR-113 matrix) +**Dependencies**: 1.1 CLI tool +**Priority**: **HIGH** — already shipped v0.0.2 from this loop's K-fold + label-smoothing work; v0.0.3 is the placement-aware retrain + +### 1.4 — ADR-029 amendment with ADR-113 placement matrix + +**Source**: ADR-113 +**Owner**: ADR-029 author / architect +**LOC**: 0 (ADR amendment only) +**Dependencies**: 1.1 CLI tool (validates the matrix) +**Priority**: **HIGH** — closes the multistatic-placement question ADR-029 left open + +## Tier 2 — Ship in next 6 months (Q3-Q4 2026) + +### 2.1 — `ruview-fed` crate (within-installation federation) + +**Source**: ADR-105 + ADR-106 +**Owner**: federation specialist (new role) +**LOC**: ~800 (Krum aggregator, LoRA+int8 delta codec, MERIDIAN centroid hook, mincut consistency check, DP-SGD with Moments Accountant, primitive isolation enforcement) +**Dependencies**: AgentDB, ruvllm-microlora, ruvector-mincut (all existing) +**Priority**: **HIGH** — enables R14 empathic appliances + R16/R17/R18 vertical work; ~3-week effort + +### 2.2 — Updated `cog-vital-signs` with R15 primitive isolation + +**Source**: R14 / R15 / ADR-106 +**Owner**: vital-signs cog maintainer +**LOC**: ~120 (PrimitiveTag enum, on-device-only enforcement at API surface, per-cog config schema) +**Dependencies**: 2.1 `ruview-fed` +**Priority**: **HIGH** — privacy-compliant medical-grade vitals; required for R16 healthcare deployment + +### 2.3 — Bench validation suite for placement matrix + +**Source**: ADR-113 honest scope +**Owner**: bench engineer + COM5 hardware +**LOC**: ~200 (test fixtures + CSI capture + matrix-vs-observed comparison) +**Dependencies**: 1.1 CLI tool +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — turns ADR-113's synthetic numbers into validated numbers + +### 2.4 — MCP tool `ruview_placement_recommend` + +**Source**: ADR-104 + ADR-113 +**Owner**: ruview-mcp maintainer +**LOC**: ~60 +**Dependencies**: 1.1 CLI tool +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — enables AI-agent-driven deployment + +## Tier 3 — Ship in next year (2027) + +### 3.1 — Cross-installation federation (ADR-107) + +**Source**: ADR-107 +**Owner**: federation + crypto specialist +**LOC**: +530 (Bonawitz secure aggregation, threshold Shamir, PKI client, per-installation rotation key) +**Dependencies**: 2.1 `ruview-fed` +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — enables R16-R17-R18 cross-installation cogs + +### 3.2 — PQC migration Phase 1 (ADR-108 + ADR-109) + +**Source**: ADR-108 + ADR-109 +**Owner**: crypto specialist +**LOC**: +220 (Kyber-768 KEM) + +270 (Dilithium-3 signing) = +490 total +**Dependencies**: 3.1 cross-installation federation +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — opt-in pgc-hybrid mode; required by Phase 2 (2027-Q2) + +### 3.3 — Real-AETHER + R3.2 embedding-level cross-room re-ID + +**Source**: R3 / R3.1 / R3.2 / ADR-024 +**Owner**: ML training engineer +**LOC**: ~200 (R3.2 protocol composed with ADR-024 contrastive head) +**Dependencies**: ADR-024 AETHER training (~1-2 days on RTX 5080) +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — produces working cross-room re-ID, unblocks R14 per-occupant features + +### 3.4 — `cog-fall-detection` (R12.1 production) + +**Source**: R12.1 + ADR-079 +**Owner**: cog developer +**LOC**: ~200 (pose-PABS pipeline + fall-event detector + EHR/alert integration shim) +**Dependencies**: 1.2 R12.1 in vital_signs +**Priority**: **HIGH** for R16 healthcare; **MEDIUM** for general + +## Tier 4 — Long horizon (2027-2030) + +### 4.1 — PQC migration Phase 2 (hybrid default) + +**Source**: ADR-108 + ADR-109 Phase 2 +**Owner**: crypto specialist +**LOC**: +150 +**Dependencies**: 3.2 Phase 1 deployed and stable +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — CNSA 2.0 compliance + +### 4.2 — Wildlife cog (R10 + cog-wildlife) + +**Source**: R10 +**Owner**: ecology partner + cog developer +**LOC**: ~300 (gait-frequency classifier + species-prior model + labelled wildlife CSI dataset) +**Dependencies**: 2.1 federation (for cross-deployment training), labelled dataset (external partnership) +**Priority**: **LOW** — high impact but long lead-time for data + +### 4.3 — Maritime cog (R11 + cog-maritime-watch) + +**Source**: R11 +**Owner**: maritime partner + cog developer +**LOC**: ~250 (through-seam acoustic-coupled CSI + man-overboard detector + crew-vitals) +**Dependencies**: 2.1 federation, maritime partner for ship deployment +**Priority**: **LOW** — niche but high-value-per-deployment + +### 4.4 — R6.1 multi-scatterer in production `vital_signs` + +**Source**: R6.1 +**Owner**: vital-signs maintainer +**LOC**: ~150 (replace scalar Fresnel with multi-scatterer forward; PPE-aware variant for R17 industrial) +**Dependencies**: 1.2 R12.1 first +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — improves SNR-budget accuracy; PPE variant for R17 + +## Tier 5 — Research-needed (post-2027) + +### 5.1 — R6.1 with real body RCS measurements + +**Source**: R6.1 honest scope +**Owner**: physics consultant + bench engineer +**LOC**: 0 (paper, measurement campaign) +**Dependencies**: anechoic-chamber access +**Priority**: **LOW** — refines per-body-part reflectivity by 2-3× + +### 5.2 — Outdoor / weather-affected propagation + +**Source**: R10 / R11 / R17 / R18 honest scope +**Owner**: physics consultant +**LOC**: 0 (paper) +**Dependencies**: weather-station data +**Priority**: **LOW** — needed for outdoor cogs + +### 5.3 — Long-shift gait fatigue (cog-worker-fatigue) + +**Source**: R17 + R10 +**Owner**: ergonomics + ML developer +**LOC**: ~300 (temporal gait-drift detector) +**Dependencies**: labelled multi-hour worker data +**Priority**: **LOW** — OSHA-aligned but long lead-time + +### 5.4 — Disaster-deployment federation with consent + +**Source**: R18 +**Owner**: ethics consultant + legal +**LOC**: 0 (policy work) +**Dependencies**: FEMA / urban-SAR partnerships +**Priority**: **LOW** — ethical work first, technical later + +## Tier 6 — Operational / management + +### 6.1 — Owner-key rotation policy (ADR-111) + +**Source**: ADR-109 honest scope +**Owner**: security architect +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — required before ADR-109 Phase 1 + +### 6.2 — Cross-organisation PKI bootstrapping (ADR-107 operational) + +**Source**: ADR-107 deferred items +**Owner**: ops architect +**Priority**: **MEDIUM** — needed before cross-installation federation goes multi-org + +### 6.3 — FDA / CE regulatory pathway (R16) + +**Source**: R16 healthcare honest scope +**Owner**: regulatory consultant +**Cost**: $500K-$2M per device class +**Timeline**: 6-18 months +**Priority**: **HIGH** for healthcare deployment + +## Critical-path graph (text version) + +``` +1.1 plan-antennas CLI ----+ + v +1.2 R12.1 vital_signs ---+ + v +1.3 cog-person-count v0.0.3 ---+ + v +2.1 ruview-fed crate --------+ + v +2.2 cog-vital-signs DP -----+ + v +3.1 cross-install fed -----+ + v +3.2 PQC migration --------+ + v +3.3 R3.2 embedding cross-room +3.4 cog-fall-detection (independent of 3.3) +4.x verticals (R10, R11, R16, R17, R18) +``` + +## Total engineering budget across the loop's output + +| Tier | LOC | Person-weeks | +|---|---:|---:| +| Tier 1 (Q3 2026) | ~490 | 3-4 | +| Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026) | ~1180 | 6-8 | +| Tier 3 (2027) | ~1140 | 8-10 | +| Tier 4-5 (long horizon) | ~700+ | 6-8 | +| **Total** | **~3,500 LOC** | **~25 person-weeks** | + +This includes both the privacy + federation + PQC chain (~1,820 LOC) and the placement / cog / integration work (~1,700 LOC). + +## What this roadmap DOES enable + +1. **A team can pick this up and start shipping** without re-reading the 34 research notes. +2. **Priority alignment** for engineering managers. +3. **Estimate-anchoring** for project planning. +4. **Critical-path visibility** for parallel work scheduling. + +## What this roadmap DOES NOT enable + +- Production validation (still required per Tier 2.3 bench validation). +- Regulatory approval (Tier 6.3 separate pathway). +- Partnership establishment (Tier 4.4 / 4.3 / 5.4 all need external partners). +- The roadmap is **only as good as the underlying ticks** — synthetic-data-based estimates may shift. + +## Composes with every loop thread + +This document is the **terminal output** of the loop — every research thread, ADR, vertical sketch, and follow-up has a line in some Tier above. + +## Connection back + +Every loop output → roadmap line: +- Research threads R1, R3, R5–R18 → Tier 3-5 cogs + Tier 1-2 implementations +- ADRs 105-109 + 113 → Tier 2-4 implementation work +- R6 family (9 ticks) → Tier 1.1 CLI + Tier 4.4 production multi-scatterer +- R3 arc (3 ticks) → Tier 3.3 real-AETHER + Tier 3 cross-room re-ID +- R12 arc (3 ticks) → Tier 1.2 R12.1 pose-PABS + Tier 3.4 cog-fall-detection +- Negative results (R12 revisited, R13 floor, R3.1 architecture) → Tier 5 research-needed items +- Honest-scope findings → Tier 5 research-needed items diff --git a/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-35.md b/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-35.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..79c8656d --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/ticks/tick-35.md @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +# Tick 35 — 2026-05-22 10:55 UTC + +**Thread:** Production roadmap synthesis +**Verdict:** Terminal output of the loop. Maps every research finding to owner / LOC / dependency / priority. Total budget: **~3,500 LOC, ~25 person-weeks**. + +## What shipped + +- `docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md` — 6-tier roadmap from loop output to shipped product. + +## Headline budget breakdown + +| Tier | Timeline | LOC | Person-weeks | +|---|---|---:|---:| +| Tier 1 | Q3 2026 (next quarter) | ~490 | 3-4 | +| Tier 2 | Q3-Q4 2026 | ~1180 | 6-8 | +| Tier 3 | 2027 | ~1140 | 8-10 | +| Tier 4-5 | long horizon | ~700+ | 6-8 | +| **Total** | | **~3,500** | **~25 weeks** | + +## Tier 1 (Q3 2026) — 4 items + +| # | Item | LOC | Priority | +|---|---|---:|---| +| 1.1 | `wifi-densepose plan-antennas` CLI tool | 360 | HIGH | +| 1.2 | R12.1 pose-PABS in vital_signs cog | 80 | HIGH | +| 1.3 | cog-person-count v0.0.3 chest-centric | 50 | HIGH | +| 1.4 | ADR-029 amendment w/ ADR-113 matrix | 0 | HIGH | + +Tier 1 alone delivers: 93× placement-coverage lift, 9.36× intruder-detection lift, ADR-029 closed. + +## Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026) — 4 items + +`ruview-fed` crate (800 LOC), cog-vital-signs DP (120), bench validation (200), MCP placement tool (60). + +## Tier 3 (2027) — 4 items + +Cross-install fed (530), PQC Phase 1 (490), real-AETHER + R3.2 (200), cog-fall-detection (200). + +## Tier 4-5 — long horizon + +- 4.x: PQC Phase 2, R10 wildlife cog, R11 maritime cog, R6.1 production +- 5.x: Real RCS measurements, weather-affected propagation, fatigue cog, disaster-fed ethics + +## Critical-path graph + +``` +1.1 CLI ──┬──> 1.3 person-count v0.0.3 ──┬──> 2.1 ruview-fed ──> 2.2 DP-VS ──> 3.1 X-install ──> 3.2 PQC +1.2 R12.1─┘ │ │ + └──> 3.3 real-AETHER ──> 3.4 fall │ + 4.x verticals +``` + +## Why this document matters + +After 35 ticks of research output, this is the document that lets a team **pick up and ship** without re-reading the 34 research notes. Priority alignment, estimate-anchoring, critical-path visibility — all in one place. + +## What R-numbered threads ship in what tier + +| Threads | Tier | +|---|---| +| R5 / R6 / R6.2 family / R6.1 | Tier 1 (placement + PABS) | +| R12 / R12.1 PABS | Tier 1.2 | +| R3 / R3.1 / R3.2 / R14 / R15 | Tier 2-3 (privacy + federation) | +| R7 mincut | Tier 2 (in ruview-fed) | +| R13 NEGATIVE | rules out BP cog, no Tier line | +| R10 wildlife | Tier 4.2 | +| R11 maritime | Tier 4.3 | +| R16/R17/R18 verticals | Tier 4-5 | + +## Composes with every loop output + +Every loop thread, ADR, vertical sketch has a line in some Tier above. This is the **terminal output** of the loop — the last document that needs the synthesis power of a research loop to produce. + +## Honest scope of the roadmap itself + +- Estimates are synthetic-data-based; may shift after bench validation +- Critical-path may have hidden dependencies (e.g. AgentDB schema changes) +- 25 person-weeks assumes full-time engineers, not split focus +- Doesn't include integration testing, documentation, deployment ops time +- Tiers are based on architectural dependency, not business priority + +## Coordination + +`ticks/tick-35.md`. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch `research/sota-production-roadmap`. + +## Loop status approaching completion + +~1.1h to cron stop. After 35 ticks the loop has produced: + +- 16 research threads (R1, R3, R5-R15, R16, R17, R18) +- 6 exotic verticals (wildlife, maritime, empathic, healthcare, industrial, disaster) +- 6 new ADRs (105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 113) +- 3 negative result categories +- 2 self-corrections +- 3 honest-scope findings +- 9-tick R6 placement family (complete) +- 3-tick R3 cross-room re-ID arc (complete) +- 3-tick R12 structure detection arc (complete) +- This production roadmap synthesis + +The 00-summary.md (final tick) will follow after the 12:00 UTC / 08:00 ET cron stop.