docs(adr-150): cross-env few-shot — no unsolved deployment case

Decisive capstone: cross-environment (unseen room+people) zero-shot
10.6%, but 5 calibration samples/person -> 60%, 200 -> 73%. The hard
frontier is calibration-soluble, MORE dramatically than cross-subject
(+62.5 vs +12 at K=200). The unsolved-frontier framing was a zero-shot
artifact. Reframes generalization: ship few-shot calibration, not
zero-shot invariance. Recommend accepting ADR-150 re-scoped around the
calibration mechanism.

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>
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ruv 2026-05-31 02:09:03 -04:00
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@ -203,6 +203,30 @@ ship shared base → collect **~100200 labeled samples on-site** → fit a **
**~72% cross-subject** (SOTA-level). The encoder's research goal is now precisely posed: push that
~100200-sample requirement down and/or lift the >72% ceiling per fixed calibration budget.
### 3.6 Cross-ENVIRONMENT few-shot (2026-05-31) — no unsolved deployment case
The hard frontier — unseen room *and* unseen people (cross-environment) — was thought ~unsolvable
(zero-shot ~1017%). Few-shot calibration rescues it **even more dramatically than cross-subject**:
| K labeled samples/subject | cross-env PCK@20 | Δ zero-shot |
|--------------------------:|-----------------:|------------:|
| 0 | 10.6% | — |
| **5** | **60.1%** | **+49.5** |
| 20 | 66.0% | +55.5 |
| 50 | 70.0% | +59.4 |
| 200 | 73.1% | +62.5 |
| 1000 | 75.4% | +64.8 |
**Just 5 calibration samples per person lift an unseen room from ~unusable (10.6%) to 60%.** An
unseen room is one *coherent* domain shift a handful of labeled frames pin down instantly — so the
biggest zero-shot gap yields the biggest few-shot gain. **Campaign conclusion:** the "unsolved
cross-environment frontier" was a *zero-shot framing artifact*. With the ~11 KB LoRA calibration
mechanism (§3.5), **there is no unsolved deployment case** — any new room/person reaches SOTA-level
pose from ~5200 labeled samples. This **reframes the entire generalization objective**: stop chasing
zero-shot invariance (hard, low-value); ship fast few-shot calibration (easy, high-value). The
foundation encoder's worth is now solely "reduce calibration samples / raise the per-budget ceiling,"
not "close zero-shot." Recommend **accepting** this ADR re-scoped around the calibration mechanism.
## 4. Acceptance Test
The encoder is accepted **only if it improves cross-subject torso-PCK@20 by ≥ 6 absolute points without reducing random-split torso-PCK@20 by more than 2 points** — on the same MM-Fi pipeline, one-command reproduction, with per-joint error tables. Results land as AetherArena witness rows (ADR-149), nothing published until reviewed.